Battleground Polling Shows Ticket- Splitting Pattern

President Biden trails in polling in Arizona. Ruben Gallego, right, is leading in a Senate race there. Credit…Kenny Holston/The New York Times

This morning, we have a new set of polls for you in the battleground states, including New York Times/Siena College polls of Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and the inaugural Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll in Pennsylvania.

The results in the presidential race would have been surprising a year ago, but it’s hard to call them surprising anymore. Donald J. Trump leads in five of the six states among likely voters, with Mr. Biden squeaking out a lead among likely voters in Michigan. Mr. Trump’s strength is largely thanks to gains among young, Black and Hispanic voters.

What’s more surprising is the U.S. Senate results. This is the first time we’ve asked about Senate races this year, and the Democratic candidates led in all four of the states we tested: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada.

Not only do Democrats lead, but they also seem to do so in an entirely customary way, with ordinary levels of support from young and nonwhite voters, even as Mr. Biden struggles at the top of the ticket.

Nevada was ground zero for this striking ticket splitting. Mr. Trump led the poll by a staggering 12 points among registered voters, thanks to an eye-popping nine-point lead among Hispanic voters and a 13-point lead among those 18 to 29.

But in the Senate race, everything looks “normal.” The Democratic senator Jacky Rosen led her likeliest Republican challenger by two points among registered voters, including a 46-27 lead among those 18 to 29 and a 46-28 lead among Hispanics.

Back to top button